I originally posted this as a comment on a post at ECTmmo but it ended up being so long I decided I'd just make it into it's own post. It's sort of disjointed and lacking an overall point, but whatever, that's no different from most blog posts. =p
I think a game can fall well short of WoW and still be a success. WoW is an anomaly. If there were other MMOs with say, 4.5 or 4 million, that wouldn't be the case, but after WoW you don't find #2 until like 500k. I don't think this is because WoW is that fantastic a game (it's better than some but has its problems), but because the Warcraft IP and Blizzard in general already had a huge fan base in the more popular genres of RTS and RPG games when MMOs were still pretty niche. This wouldn't bother me except that people keep saying "Well that game didn't beat WoW. It must be a failure."
Also, as an avid EQ player, I'd love as much as any EQ nerd to see SOE pump as much time and money into it as possible, but alas, while we might love old games, they're not where the money is. Plenty of EQ players might think it's the best game in the world, but when I try to introduce new people it their response is usually "Ew, isn't that game like 10 years old? I want to try something new." The "It has constant updates and content patches" argument usually doesn't sway them. No matter how good a game EQ is, it will never get that albatross of its neck, and I think SOE knows this, so as much as I might dislike it, I can't really fault them as a business for investing in newer games.
There definitely are a lot of "WoW imitations" floating around, either entire games, or original games borrowing ideas. I don't think this is totally horrible if done well. Ultimately a lot of WoW is borrowed from EQ, which draws heavily on old school D&D, which was just based on Tolkein which came from Norse Mythology which was based on who knows what. So much has been done that little is truly original anymore, and I don't think there's any shame or harm in borrowing ideas that work. That said one must be careful. If you just make a total WoW clone, that won't work too well, since anyone who wants to play a game like WoW is going to be playing WoW. =p It requires a careful balance of proven old ideas and original ones.
On that note, I certainly must commend EVE Online for being pretty much the most original MMO launched since EQ (I picked it up a few months ago and it's pretty neat), though it's such a niche game (super hardcore PvP, mostly. It has PvE but the PvP is the main focus and meat of the game), that its sub numbers aren't much beyond most other MMOs. Hopefully the future will hold games with the originality (and stunningly winsauce economy) of EVE, but that appeal to a broader, more casual audience like WoW.
So, yes. In conclusion: MMOs are awesome.
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